China is overtly anxious of losing its huge investments in neighbouring military-ruled Burma with civil war clouds looming between the regime and ethnic armed groups, said sources close to Chinese officials.Sources close to China’s southwestern Yunnan province government, said China’s current investment in Burma is in the region of over 600 billion dollars. It is the biggest foreign investor in Burma.
China has invested mainly in energy and mining sectors in Burma controlled by the junta as well as in business interests of ethnic armed groups along the border.
It stands to reason that China does not want strife along the Burma border, contiguous to its Yunnan province between the junta and ethnic armed groups, who have rejected the junta-proposed plans to disarm, Yunnan government sources said.
China has advised the junta to avoid military conflicts as far as possible with the border-based ethnic rebels-- Wa, Kachin and Shan, who rejected transforming their armed-wings to the Burmese Army-controlled Border Guard Force, border-based Chinese security sources added.
Major ethnic armed groups based on the border like the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Mongla-based National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) have rejected the contentious junta-proposed BGF.
Insiders from ethnic armed-groups’ said, the junta has come up with a fresh deadline at the end of February, the third so far, for transforming all ethnic armed groups to the Burmese Army controlled BGF.
Border-based Chinese security sources said, Burmese military leaders will swiftly put into action, plans to disintegrate and breakup the ethnic armed groups by pouring in huge amounts of money before the countrywide elections this year.
On February 9, there was a departmental meeting of the Yunnan government, which discussed war, which seems inevitable between the Burmese Army and the two main ethnic armed groups—UWSA and KIO.
Ethnic armed groups are unlikely to start a war though the junta has refused to resolve the political problems through a dialogue, said the groups’ sources.
A border-based military analyst told Kachin News Group today, “China would not like war on the border because it is keen to protect its 600 billion US dollar investment in Burma. If the ethnic armed groups start a war with the regime, China and the junta may jointly take the war to all border-based ethnic armed groups”.
Previous lessons of the joint military plans of the two governments, saw to the Kokang rebels, also called the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) being divided and its territory taken over by the junta in August last year.
Border military analysts said China is more interested in its investments in Burma rather than the political stability in the military-ruled country.
