The KIO has submitted its resignation letter to leave the UNFC last week, whose name has been withheld, told the Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN).

KIO and SSPP are two EAOs from northern regions of Burma who have attended the UWSA-led Panghsang ethnic submits in recent months. The two armed organizations have a close relationship with northern alliance armed groups—Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Arakan Army (AA), and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) as they are active geographically on the same trans-region.

Does the KIO alone leave UNFC; and how about if Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) would also leave?

“I think UNFC is founded on the principle of “political allies” it does not help them at the negotiation table with its counterpart Burma army; they have been cornered and pressed; they have been crushed into pieces”, said U That Hmu, an ex-student army combatant and now a Lu Baung Thit (Democratic Party for New Society) officer.

Nevertheless, Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), a key UNFC’s ally the military-alliance affairs officer Maj-Gen Sai Htoo has told to media recently that they will not leave UNFC. However, some observers raise an eye on the need to keep watching as SSPP/SSA has close relationships with northern allied ethnic armed organizations.

While the government is in a high hope and assume that the five members of UNFC—the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), the New Mon State Party (NMSP), the Arakan National Council (ANC), the Wa National Organization (WNO), and the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) would be given a good chance to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), all of their central executive committees have been busy with their ongoing high level meetings.

“NMSP’s meeting will come to an end today, 8 May; KNPP is on the tenth of this month. The decision of signing NCA is depending on the outcome of those meetings.” NMSP holds that signing of the NCA shall be done by the consent of all members under the umbrella-term of UNFC, not an individual organization. “There will be a meeting between the Delegation for Political Negotiation (DPN), a negotiation team formed by UNFC and the government’s Peace Commission (PC) within May 14-18. By then, we will get to see a better picture of how signing the NCA would go,” said a Burma-ethnologist Nai Banya Aung from Mon News agency.

On the other hand, the ethnic military allies headed by UWSA is yet to come up with their new approach proposal to peace as they have rejected the NCA, and the government has denounced the motion and insisted on the 6 May that negotiation is acceptable only if follow the NCA path to peace. Meanwhile, the UNFC’s proposal of 9-point policy has been agreed only on “principle,” not yet fully accepted. Most members of UNFC whose bases are active in southern Burma is known to have come closer to the signing of NCA are NMSP and KNPP, quoting Burma analysts as saying.

“Wouldn’t it be possible that the WNO, a member of UNFC is being persuaded by the UWSA for re-integration?” asked U Maung Maung, an ex-BCP combatant, northern region and ethnic affairs study.

Among the Wa people, ex-BCPP (Burmese Communist Programme Party) members were known as “red Wa”, while the Wa who did not integrate with BCPP became “white Wa”. Therefore, no strange that if WNO, the white Wa leaves UNFC and becomes united with UWSA, the red Wa. The LDU, on the other hands, has a strong link with UWSA. The LDU’s troops have been closely active with UWSA’s 171 Military Zone or otherwise known as Monghsat region.

Curiosity is that if Arakan National Council/Arakan Army (ANC/AA) will sign the NCA or will follow the UWSA-led new political approach to peace, whose fellows United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) is an ally, yet remains to be seen. KNPP, although less military manpower, yet able to stand on their own feet.

Nevertheless, NMSP who is taking a leadership role of UNFC/DPN is rather challenging. Geographically, the NMSP is largely active amidst of not only within reach of Burma military, but with also some other NCA-signatories Border Guard Force (BGF) troopers. Therefore, the NMSP may have not much choice but swallow their bittersweet.

In the meantime, the political challenge for NMSP and KNPP being their request to update the NCA treaty with the 9-point proposals. If the government and military insist ‘no amendment’ to the original NCA can be made, what they would do? And if in case of military challenge is imminent, what is their alternative?

We can conclude that under any circumstance, the remaining five members of UNFC to sign the NCA is, however, unforeseeable at least for now.

By Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN)